Why Trump might win it all

This post updates the one at American Thinker.

This post has been updated on July 26, 2016 and now October 28, 2016 and now Nov. 10, 2016.

Since Trump won the nomination, let’s throw out all the old rules and flip our minds 180 degrees and inquire how he might bulldoze his way past Hillary in a head-to-head matchup.

Here are ten factors that might propel him to victory.

  1. The Hillary and Trump occupy the same moral low ground.

Sorry to sound negative about our country, but several writers have observed it already. Trump’s the product of culture rot, professional wrestling, and authoritarian Evangelical pastors and church culture. Gobs of Evangelicals support him, after all.

However, Hillary’s “husband” Bill Clinton had his shenanigans in the Oval Office. Their marriage seems a sham. How can Hillary claim the moral high ground over Trump?

Maybe America no longer wants a Moralistic Nanny-in-Chief.

Make America Degrade Again can apply to both. But America doesn’t care. She’s been slouching towards Gomorrah since the 1960’s.

Morally, it’s a 1-1 tie between the two candidates. Better: It’s a 0-0 tie. Or maybe Hillary has just a little less baggage than Trump does, but not by much: 0-1/2.

  1. Trump’s TV personality and fame may outdo Hillary’s TV exposure.

To build on the first reason, Trump emerges from the swamp of crass TV culture, so his name recognition is nearly universal. And the news media gleefully give him TV time.

Hillary has name recognition, but maybe not as much as Trump does.

Will her negatives outweigh Trump’s negatives?

This fame factor could help propel him into the White House.

  1. Appearances matter.

He may not be all that handsome, but his grown kids are all right, by current standards of beauty. TV viewers won’t have to swallow hard when they see his kids. (Imagine how pop culture would gag if they were ugly!) The slight diversity comes in with his daughter, who is Jewish. Charming. A handsome First Family is always a winner.

Hillary is also aging and not very attractive. Hillary’s daughter Chelsea seems classy enough, and she married a Jew. Diversity of sorts. But will her involvement in the Clinton Foundation hurt her? Will Hillary’s “husband” drag her down? He doesn’t appear at very many rallies.

  1. Trump is no hard-core ideologue, while Hillary is.

Reagan, a conservative, distanced himself, according to his autobiography, from these kinds of conservatives: “Right wingers” (p. 153); “radical conservatives” (p. 171); “conservative diehards” (p. 206); “hard core conservatives” (p. 322); and “ultra pure conservatives” (p. 322).

Trump is erratic, but he may settle down; wherever he lands, those epithets won’t apply to him.

Hillary has had to lurch really far left, thanks to Sanders.

America may be tired of hard liners, left or right.

If so, they will reject Hillary and welcome Trump.

  1. Trump may indeed be drawing Reagan democrats to his cause.

Let’s assume that thirty-three percent claim to be conservative, twenty-five percent liberal, and the forty-two percent are nondescript.

After defeating incumbent Gov. Brown in 1966 by a margin of 58-42, Reagan understood who his supporters were. He wrote in his autobiography: “In fact, analysis of the election returns showed that most of my support didn’t come from right wingers or even conservative Republicans, but from middle-of-the-road voters in both parties” (p. 153).

Reagan reinforced those coalitions in 1980 and built even bigger ones in 1984.

What if Trump can draw the bulk of the forty-two percent, along with millions of thirty-three percent (though not all) and a slice of the twenty-five percent, the centrist liberals?

Yes, democrats may be voting for Trump to cause a form of Operation Chaos during the primaries, but are all of them doing that? Maybe most of them really like him.

They may move away from Hillary and give the new guy his chance in November. They may make up for his losing the minority voters, as he surely will, unless he tones down his immigration “policies.”

Further, there may be a small percentage “shy Trump” voters out there. They could push him to victory.

  1. Trump is a flexible negotiator, while Hillary is a failed negotiator.

Reagan wrote in his autobiography: “If you got seventy-five or eighty percent of what you were asking for, I say, you take it and fight for the rest later, and that’s what I told these radical conservatives who never got used to it” (p. 171).

No, I’m not drawing the facile parallel of Trump = Reagan. But what does the roughly forty-two percent who claim neither to be conservative or liberal think about his negotiation strategy?

You and I are not flexible about a list of issues. But we belong to the thirty-three percent. Will everyone else give his flexibility a chance in November?

Hillary has revealed nothing but incompetence while she turned the levers of power in the state department. The Russian reset button is a failure, for example. She has no grounds for claiming flexibility—for claiming anything of substance.

  1. Trump is an outsider, while Hillary is an insider.

On the presidential level, anti-incumbent fire is raging across the land, and Hillary is attached to incumbent Obama’s hip. Her claim to fame comes only from her labors in Washington.

America wants a new beginning with an outsider.

The bottom-line equation: Outsider = good; insider = bad.

Hillary is on the bad side.

  1. Trump can bring in outside businesspersons to help him clean up the bureaucracy, while Hillary can’t or won’t.

When Gov. Reagan assumed the reins of power in Sacramento, he brought in a team of businessmen to assess how inefficient the bureaucracy was. They were known as the “Kitchen Cabinet.” They made scores of recommendations (Autobiography, Chapter 23).

Trump said in his victory speech on March 15 that he would bring in many businessmen to help him with the government.

A pleasing image: limos full of blue-suited, briefcase-carrying CEO’s pulling up before the CBO and EPA and IRS buildings; the men and women pile out and hold a press conference before they enter and get to work and clean house.

No doubt they will uncover countless rat nests.

What business ties does Hillary have? Very few, certainly not many who haven’t been tainted by the Clinton Foundation and alleged pay-to-play. She herself is not famous for being a businessperson. Ideologically, she really doesn’t like business, though on the campaign trail she wouldn’t admit it unless she’s politically unsavvy.

  1. Hillary is more politically compromised than Trump is.

This factor is the most important one explaining why he might win it all.

Sure Trump is politically compromised, but his version comes from the outside of politics; he’s never been a politician and wielded his insider government power to get his way.

Hillary’s compromise does come from the inside. She has used her place in government to bestow favors. Her real-world incompetence as Secretary of State will seem “yuuge” standing against Trump’s abstract policy deficiencies and business failures. She may narrowly escape an indictment—or be indicted.

In any case, I can imagine his saying unapologetically and bluntly to Madam Secretary and the former FLOTUS, in a debate, “You’re a liar! You should be in prison!” smirking, not caring a bit what people think. He could add: “You think my marriages are bad? What about your sham of a marriage?” And “Trump University and the lawsuit? What about the server and the FBI investigation? And the Clinton Foundation? You took donations from me, you shrill shill! I own you!”

Corruption v. Corruption, America will choose outsider Trump over insider Hillary.

  1. Momentum counts for a lot.

Call it the Trump Tsunami.

Hillary has no momentum. The longtime insider has worn out her welcome.

Let’s wrap it up.

In the generals, he will always have the full weight of the media against him.

He appears to be a long shot—for now. The polls show Hillary defeating him—for now.

You and I are nervous about Trump.

But nothing has been able to stop the tornado so far. Maybe Hillary won’t either, as her political corruption and incompetence as Secretary of State grows in the public’s eye.

He’s not running against an ideal, notional, perfect nominee. She’s badly damaged.

It’s time to throw out the old rules.

I certainly have not liked Trump, and I have even satirized him here and here.

However, I have to weigh carefully the SCOTUS vacancy, when I vote in November. That factor alone may make many conservative purists drop their objections and vote for him. He may improve on the campaign trail too.

He might just win it all. He did win it all!

 

Related

Reagan’s balanced and reasonable politics;

Gov. Reagan’s Secret Missions (his outreach to minorities);

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s